The 49ers, who have a growing interest in Leeds given the franchise’s investment in Leeds United, lost the opening game of the season last weekend to the Chicago Bears in monsoon conditions, a game screened live at a watch party in Leeds last week.
But data experts FiveThirtyEight are predicting a bounceback victory for the 49ers over their NFC divisional rival Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, 4.05pm eastern standard time, 9.05pm UK time. live on Sky Sports NFL.
The focus will be on second-year quarterback Trey Lance who showed what he can contribute to the running game with 54 yards and 13 carries to go along with his 13-of-28 for 164 yards in the defeat in Chicago. But there were plenty of weaknesses.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said: “Trey’s a guy who is always hard on himself. Looks at everything hard and comes in Tuesday and does all his rehab and gets ready like the other players do.”
On the Seahawks, who beat Denver in week one, Shanahan added: “They’re going to hit. They’re coached very well. They got a bunch of talent on their team and it didn’t surprise me how they looked.”
Data experts are also predicting a first win of the 2022 season for the Las Vegas Raiders and a second win of the campaign for the New York Giants, who shocked last year’s AFC No. 1 seeds Tennessee Titans in week one.
Following the latest round of games, data experts at FiveThirtyEight have predicted how the Week Two NFL results will look. Using their ratings for each team, they simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each game.
Here’s how the FiveThirtyEight formula works: Forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game.
According to the website: “FiveThirtyEight’s traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for each upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games.
“A team’s current quarterback adjustment is based on its likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the team’s top starter.
“Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values.”
Sunday 1pm (6pm UK time) slate
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
The Giants, who are coming off a terrific week one win, have a 64% win probability compared to the Panthers, beaten by the Browns on opening day, who have a 36% chance. The spread is minus 4.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts are favored to win their AFC South match-up by a win probability of 65% to 35% with a minus 4 spread, even though the Colts have been known to lose a few games down in Duval.
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
An intriguing AFC clash between two teams that won in week one is projected to go the way of the home team Ravens, 60% to Miami’s 40% with a minus 3 spread.
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
A clash of two AFC heavyweights with 12 Super Bowl titles between them is projected to go the way of the Steelers – winners in overtime against the reigning AFC champion Bengals in week one – who have a 58% win probability to the Patriots’ 42% with a spread of minus 2.
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
Can the Browns go 2-0 after winning in Carolina in week one? Yes they can say the data experts, with a win probability of 62% to 38% and a point spread of minus 3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (live on Sky Sports NFL)
A huge NFC South showdown. Tom Brady’s Bucs have lost every regular season game against the Saints in the last two seasons but are favorites to win on the road with a win probability of 58% to 42% and a minus 2.5 spread.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
The Commanders are backed to move to 2-0 against the Lions with a win probability of 56% to 44% and a spread of minus 1.5.
The 4.05pm/4.25pm (9.05pm/9.25pm UK time) slate
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (live on Sky Sports)
Despite the Seahawks being 1-0 and the 49ers 0-1, Shanahan’s men are heavy favorites in the NFC West clash, with a 69% projection to win against 31%. The spread is minus 5.5.
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams
The easiest pick of the week, but this is the NFL right? Even so, surely the world champion LA Rams get their first win of the season against a down-on-their-luck Atlanta Falcons. The Rams have a 79% win probability against the Falcons’ 21% with a minus 9 spread.
Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Cardinals lost to one AFC West team last week…and are tipped to lose to another on Sunday, with Davante Adams and the Raiders 58% favorites to 42%, with a minus 2 spread.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
The reigning AFC champs go into Arlington to face the Dak Prescott-less Cowboys and get their season off and running – so say the data experts; giving the Bengals a 66% win percentage against the Cowboys’ 34% with a minus 4.5 spread.
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
Two teams looking for their first win, and it’s the Broncos who get it say FiveThirtyEight, a win percentage of 76% for Russell Wilson’s first game at Mile Hugh Stadium, versus 24% for the Texans, with a spread of minus 8.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
One of the oldest rivalries in the NFL, and despite the Bears winning week one and the Packers losing, now back at Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers and the Pack have a 73% win probability to 27%, with a minus 7 spread.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
The AFC favorite Bills blitzed the Super Bowl champions on opening night, so what does the 2021 AFC No 1 seed Titans have to offer? Nothing much according to the data experts with the Bills 76% favorites to the Titans 24% with a minus 8 spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
This NFC clash rounds out week two and with both teams coming into it fresh off a win, it’s tipped to be one of the tightest contests of the week with the Eagles edging it with a 55% win probability to the Vikings’ 45%, with at minus 1.5 spread.